981
AXNT20 KNHC 102350
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU SEP 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 32W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD.
IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 53W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W AND THEN
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 19N BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND
22W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF TAMPA BAY TO THE NW
GULF NEAR 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 25N93W TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN BAY, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONT. SEAS WHERE THE HIGHER
WINDS PREVAIL ARE 3 TO 5 FT, OTHERWISE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SARASOTA, FLORIDA TO THE NW GULF WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, LIKELY REACHING
THE SOUTH PART OF THE BASIN BY SAT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL S OF THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
SURFACE WINDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN, ARE INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BASIN, WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE FOUND
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, N
OF THE BAHAMAS AND E TO 72W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF
22N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 31N49W TO NEAR 20N48W, AND IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC W
OF 35W IS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. AREAS E OF 35W AND N OF 20N ARE SEEING FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT THU AND MOVE
SE, LIKELY REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY,
BEFORE STALLING AGAIN, AND DISSIPATING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS
NEAR FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED N
OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION THIS WEEK, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
ADAMS
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