399
AXNT20 KNHC 110455
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU SEP 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0425 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 14N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 25W AND 36W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 11N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
13N35W AND THEN TO 12N53W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N56W TO 11N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 18N AND EAST
OF 22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N AND BETWEEN
37W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF,
EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS, FLORIDA TO SOUTH TEXAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
SEEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF
26N. SIMILAR WINDS AND SEAS ARE ALSO EVIDENT OFF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN YUCATAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE
INTO A COLD FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS,
LIKELY REACHING THE SOUTH PART OF THE BASIN BY SAT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN, PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SEEN NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT THE
SURFACE, BROAD RIDGING POSITIONED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THESE WATERS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN AND NW
CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO FRIDAY, ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT, EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO PORT SAINT LUCIE,
FLORIDA, CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 66W, PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 27N AND BETWEEN 61W AND 70W. MARINERS
NAVIGATING THESE WATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS NEAR GALE-FORCE AND
HIGHER SEAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 60W,
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESULT IN
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
51W AND NORTH OF 24N. THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF 23N AND BETWEEN
45W AND 57W. THE REST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
IS DOMINATED BY A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT NORTH
OF 17N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. SIMILAR WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 50W. IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC, EAST OF 20N AND NORTH OF 18N, FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS PEAKING
NEAR 11 FT ARE FOUND OFF MOROCCO. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT THU AND MOVE SE, LIKELY REACHING THE NW
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY, BEFORE STALLING AGAIN, AND
DISSIPATING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SAT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS
WEEK, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY
MODERATE SEAS.
DELGADO
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