241
AXNT20 KNHC 111727
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU SEP 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W, SOUTH OF 22N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 20W-28W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-60W.
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W,
SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE TODAY.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W AND THEN CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
11N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N46W TO 13N54W, WHERE IT IS BROKEN
BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AT 10N56W TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 09N61W. 12N56W TO 11N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
52W-60W ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS, FLORIDA, TO THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 92W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N96W TO 23N90W. AWAY FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE NE
MODERATE, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS GENTLE WINDS. SEAS
ARE 2-4 FT OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE SOUTH- CENTRAL GULF BY
MON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF THE FRONT. FRESH WINDS MAY PULSE THE
NEXT FEW EVENINGS OFFSHORE THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A
DIURNAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-89W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOT SOUTH OF 11N WEST OF 80W DUE TO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC'S
MONSOON TROUGH. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-
AZORES HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A 1009 MB COLOMBIAN LOW AT
10N76W IS FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH ISOLATED STRONG
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE. SEAS ARE
5-8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING DIMINISHED TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO NEAR VERO BEACH,
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 27N WEST
OF 70W. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE NE MODERATE AND SEAS 4-5 FT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 28N69W TO 23N71W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
63W-70W. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORCING A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM 24N59W TO 27N56W AND FROM 21N53W TO 28N49W,
ALONG WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
48W-57W. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB BERMUDA-
AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 52W WITH
SEAS 5-8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA AND THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SEAS
5-9 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC,
WINDS ARE GENTLE AND SEAS 4-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SE
THROUGH SAT, THEN STALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND FROM JUST
W OF BERMUDA THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EAST OF THE
FRONT, A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PERSIST E OF 70W, PRODUCING A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
LANDSEA/STRIPLING
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