847
AXNT20 KNHC 112339
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE ANALYSIS, WITH AXIS
ALONG 15W FROM 07N-20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N-17N AND E OF 20W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W, SOUTH OF 22N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-56W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ITS AXIS ALONG 82W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE TODAY.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W AND THEN
CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 12N47W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
11N46W TO 13N54W, WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W.
THE ITCZ RESUMES AT 10N56W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 09N61W.
12N56W TO 11N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-60W ALSO ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS, FLORIDA, TO THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 93W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 95W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N95W. AWAY FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE MODERATE,
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS GENTLE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
ALONG 23N BY LATE MON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE
FRONT WHILE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF
THE FRONT. FRESH WINDS MAY PULSE THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS OFFSHORE
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DIURNAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF
82W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 11N WEST OF
80W DUE TO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC'S MONSOON TROUGH. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AND A 1007 MB COLOMBIAN LOW AT 10N75W IS FORCING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE GENTLE. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SW CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI, BEFORE DIMINISHING. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PRODUCING DIMINISHED TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN FRI
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO 27N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT ARE NE MODERATE, WITH MODERATE. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
FORCING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS BETWEEN 50W-60N AND N OF 23N,
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A 1029 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES NORTH
OF 17N EAST OF 52W WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA AND THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS WITH ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, WINDS ARE GENTLE AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SE
THROUGH SAT, THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE NW SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. EAST OF THE FRONT, A
BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PERSIST E OF 70W, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
ERA
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