246
AXNT20 KNHC 120312
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 17W FROM
02N-20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N-17N AND E OF 21W.
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W/36W,
SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 32W-38W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 55W, SOUTH
OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 52W-57W.
THE AXIS OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 11N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17.5N16W AND
CONTINUES TO 12N51W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
04N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS, FLORIDA, TO NEAR
25N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT, ARE
FOUND N OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OFF
THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 1-3 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
ALONG 23N BY LATE MON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N
OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL S OF THE FRONT. FRESH WINDS MAY PULSE THE NEXT FEW
EVENINGS OFFSHORE THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DIURNAL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND A 1009 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE IN
THE 6-8 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT,
ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. W OF 80W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS
OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI, BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PRODUCING DIMINISHED TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN FRI
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO 27N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT, PREVAIL WEST OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N36W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, ARE FOUND N OF 18N AND E OF 40W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO
THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT NIGHT AND STALL. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT, BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST E OF 70W ALLOWING
FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY MODERATE
SEAS.
AL
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