047
AXNT20 KNHC 121042
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 19W FROM
02N TO 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 14N. THE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
20W-24W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 37W FROM
02N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 34W
AND 40W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 56W SOUTH
OF 19N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. INCREASING NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
54W AND 59W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 81W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
BEHIND THE WAVE TO ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND
SOUTH OF 11N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W AND
TO 11N36W TO NEAR 11N40W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, NO SIGNIFICANT IS PRESENTLY
NOTED.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD
TO NEAR 24N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 27N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 27N WEST OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY MODERATE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 23N BY LATE
MON, WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT
WHILE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH WINDS MAY PULSE THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS
OFFSHORE THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DIURNAL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND A 1009 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE IN
THE 6 TO FT RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT, ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. W OF 80W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOME AREAS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRESENT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W
AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH SOME OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS
AND TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT,
PREVAIL WEST OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTER WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36N33W, DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 20N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE N OF 18N AND E OF 40W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON SAT. IT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
N OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, BROAD
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST E OF 70W ALLOWING FOR GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
AGUIRRE
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