232
AXNT20 KNHC 121629
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 19W FROM
07N-21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N-16N EAST OF 27W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE AXIS OF AN CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 37W FROM
03N-21N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 29W-39W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 59W SOUTH OF
19N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 53W-61W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 85W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 85W..
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 11N43W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, NO SIGNIFICANT IS PRESENTLY NOTED.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 28N EAST OF 87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED FROM 24N-26N WEST OF 90W AND
SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 94W. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
WINDS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS 3-5 FT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE GENTLE WITH SEAS 1-2
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FRESH WINDS MAY PULSE THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS OFFSHORE THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF 13N AND WEST OF 75W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC'S MONSOON TROUGH. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
WITH GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ROUGH SEAS
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH SOME OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT ARE NE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS 4-7 FT. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N71W TO 28N67W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORCING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N52W
TO 30N53W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-57W. A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1029 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NEAR 37N33W AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 55W WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.
FUNNELING OF WINDS THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ALONG WESTERN
SAHARA IS CAUSING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8
FT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC, WINDS ARE GENTLE
WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TUE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SUN. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST EAST OF 70W ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
LANDSEA/CHRISTENSEN
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