219
AXNT20 KNHC 122349
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 21W FROM
07N-20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N-15N EAST OF 22W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.
THE AXIS OF AN CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 38W FROM
03N-21N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 60W SOUTH OF
19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 56W-61W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 86W SOUTH OF
20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 81W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 11N43W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, NO SIGNIFICANT IS PRESENTLY NOTED.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 28N EAST OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO OBSERVED FROM 24N-26N WEST OF 90W AND SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF
94W. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE SEAS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
WINDS ARE GENTLE WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS MAY PULSE THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS
OFFSHORE THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF 13N AND WEST OF 80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC'S MONSOON TROUGH. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WITH GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT
SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD, THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK, ALLOWING FRESH TRADE WINDS TO PULSE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE NE MODERATE
TO FRESH WITH MODERATE SEAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
25N71W TO 28N67W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 68W-72W. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS FORCING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N52W TO 30N53W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 50W-57W. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1027 MB
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NEAR 37N33W AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES NORTH OF
17N EAST OF 55W WITH MODERATE SEAS. FUNNELING OF WINDS THROUGH
THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ALONG WESTERN SAHARA IS CAUSING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC, WINDS ARE GENTLE WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL STALL THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT, BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST EAST
OF 70W ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MOSTLY MODERATE
SEAS.
ERA
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