454
AXNT20 KNHC 131031
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM
02N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. RATHER LIMITED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 19W
AND 23W, AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N27W. DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THIS SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 40W FROM
01N TO 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM
14N TO 16N.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 60W SOUTH OF
19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND THE
WAVE, AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 15N TO 17N.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 86W SOUTH OF
20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE WAVE SOUTH OF 19N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
16N17W TO ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, REACHING TO 11N25W AND TO
11N43W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ FROM 11N43W TO 10N48W
AND TO 09N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE, NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ALONG AND
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO NEAR 24N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN S OF
26N E OF 87W, AND ALSO SOUTH OF 26N W OF 90W. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OFFSHORE THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS E
OF 80W, INCREASING TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE W OF 80W. SEAS ARE IN
THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND 2 TO 4 FT
ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
TO JUST INLAND CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER
WESTERN HAITI AND EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF GONAVE. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN
CUBA AND JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD, TRADES
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA AND ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA MAY INCREASE SOME STARTING LATE MON. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM SUN THROUGH EARLY ON MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES ACROSS THAT SECTION OF THE SEA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB IS ANALYZED AT 31N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND TO JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE
CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SEEN
E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 21N TO 31N
BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FOUND BETWEEN A A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD W OF THE AREA, AND A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 50W, AND
ALSO S OF 22N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NW OF THE
FRONT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
TO NEAR 79W, WHERE AN OVERNIGHT SATELLITE DATA ASCAT PASS
INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 6 TO 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER WELL TO
THE N OF THE AREA NEAR 37W28W CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER AREA. ITS ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT N OF ABOUT 15N AND E OF 40W, WITH THE HIGHEST
OF THE SEAS LOCATED FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE ELSEWHERE PER
OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS EAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TO NEAR 79W, WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CHANGE LITTLE ELSEWHERE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
AGUIRRE
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