721
AXNT20 KNHC 132348
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 25W FROM
02N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 37W. DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 41W FROM 01N
TO 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 63.5W
SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND
65W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10.5N25W TO
10N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N43W TO 14N60W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION NOTED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 06N TO 11N EAST OF 18W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO
4 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD MON NIGHT, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS NOTED OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. SEAS ARE IN
THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH 1 TO 3
FT SEAS NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON, AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE FOLLOWING THE TROPICAL WAVE. GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
OTHERWISE THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N73W, AND A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 21N TO 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. FARTHER EAST, AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND EAST OF 55W. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED
OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN AFRICA NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
ADAMS
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