383
AXNT20 KNHC 140345
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 26W FROM
02N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 43W FROM 01N
TO 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 63W/64W
SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10.5N26W TO 11N44W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N44W TO 11N60W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED
IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF WATERS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS,
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE NW GULF IS PRESENTLY ALLOWING FOR
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG WITH MOSTLY
SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NW GULF, AND OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
REACHING FRESH SPEEDS NORTH OF VENEZUELA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 2-4 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT,
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE FOLLOWING THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
WAVE. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS WILL
PERSIST OTHERWISE THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N74W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT, PREVAIL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N35W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF
5-7 FT, PREVAIL N OF 15N AND E OF 50W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 25N TO ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND BETWEEN 75W AND
80W. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AL
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