755
AXNT20 KNHC 141031
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 29W FROM
02N TO 20N, WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N29W. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INCREASING WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF
THE WAVE FROM 11N TO 15N, AND WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM
14N TO 15N. ALTHOUGH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SOME
GRADUAL ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 44W FROM 01N
TO 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS FROM 14N TO 18N.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 20N. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO JUST WEST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 17N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS TO ITS
SOUTHEAST FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 63W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N29W TO
09N39W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND BRIEFLY PAUSES
AT 09N38W, RESUMING WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N47W AND TO
NEAR 09N59W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE, NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA GULF, WITH A 1016 MB HIGH CENTER ANAYLZED AT
28N91W. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE BASIN.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE IN THE SW GULF AND IN THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN WATERS SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W, INCLUDING
THE COAST OF NORTHWEST CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NW GULF, AND OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE BASIN IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TRADES TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN, WITH FRESH SPEEDS NORTH OF VENEZUELA AS SEEN IN
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES ALSO INDICATE GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT ARE
IN THE BASIN.
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN POTION
OF THE BASIN IS SUSTAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF ABOUT 78W. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO REACHES WESTWARD INTO SOME
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MON THROUGH TUE, AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH
TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES, AND MOSTLY
MODERATE SEAS WILL REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ANAYLZED NEAR 31N75W, WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM IT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS CAPTURED
BY AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS ARE WEST OF THE
FRONT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF ABOUT 29N AND WEST OF 79W. AN OVERNIGHT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS REVEALS SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WITH
THESE WINDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 8 FT SEAS ALONG 31N, AND
HIGHER SEAS NORTH OF 31N.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NORTH OF ABOUT 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED THAT IS
NORTH OF 31N AT 36N34W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NORTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 50W. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FT ARE ELSEWHERE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 26N TO ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W, AND FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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