694
AXNT20 KNHC 141711
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1711 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 30W FROM
01N TO 20N, WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N30W. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DEPICTED FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN
28W AND 37W. ALTHOUGH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 45W FROM 01N
TO 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 44W
AND 46W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 20N. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18.5N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N30W TO
08N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N46W TO 11N60W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 12N EAST OF 24W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SPEED CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 29N88W
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS
THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
WEEK LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
NW GULF, AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT DUE TO A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO THE S
COMBINED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE BASIN. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EASTERN END OF THE
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF 14N AND WEST OF 76W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FOR
FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE BASIN AND MODERATE TRADES OVER
THE SE AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE BASIN. SEAS IN THESE AREAS ARE
3 TO 5FT. WEST OF 79W LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MON THROUGH TUE, AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH
TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE OR SO. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES, AND MOSTLY MODERATE
SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1008 MB LOW IS ANAYLZED NEAR 33N75W, WITH A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM IT TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS 7 TO 9 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
53.5W AND 61.5W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF ABOUT 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED THAT IS NORTH OF 31N AT 35N34W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT, PREVAIL N OF 15N AND E OF 60W, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS FROM 17N TO 22N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
31N74.5W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE THE SE U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING OVER THE SE WATERS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
KRV
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