998
AXNT20 KNHC 142348
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 31.5W
FROM 01N TO 20N, WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N31.5W.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DEPICTED FROM 06N TO 16N
BETWEEN 31W AND 42W. ALTHOUGH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 46.5W FROM
01N TO 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N
TO 20N BETWEEN 43W AND 49W, AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 45W AND
48W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 20N. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18.5N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N31.5W TO
08N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 11N60W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N EAST OF
29W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE, A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 29N88.5W
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH
THE WEEK SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. WINDS WILL
FRESHEN IN THE N-CENTRAL AND NW GULF MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
REINFORCED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO MODERATE
TO FRESH IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT DUE TO
A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO THE S COMBINED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT OR COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A
RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH
OF THE BASIN, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN BASIN, WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS NOTED NEAR
THE STRONG WINDS. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MON THROUGH TUE, AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH
TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE OR WED. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES, AND MOSTLY MODERATE
SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1007 MB LOW IS ANAYLZED NEAR 33N75W, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS FROM
30.5N69W TO 24.5N77W, AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FOUND FARTHER EAST NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF ABOUT 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N32W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED FROM 15N TO 25N EAST OF 60W, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS FARTHER NORTH. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND 35W,
WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NOTED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE
SW N ATLANTIC SUPPORT ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF
21N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE
FAR NW OFFSHORES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGHS WEAKEN. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MAY
LINGER OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE SE WATERS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
ADAMS
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