906
AXNT20 KNHC 151047
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 36W FROM
01N TO 20N, WITH A 1011 MB LOW WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERSECTS
THE MONSOON TROUGH, OR ROUGHLY NEAR 11N36W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ARE ON EITHER SIDE THE WAVE AND LOW FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W
AND 40W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE REACHING TO 8 FT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER AN AREA FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND 43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND THE WAVE.
ALTHOUGH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE
WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 50W FROM 01N
TO 21N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 70W SOUTH
OF 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND
71W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N36W TO
10N42W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO
10N49W AND BRIEFLY PAUSES. IT RESUMES AT 10N51W TO 09N60W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 38W AD 45W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL THAT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW PREVAILS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE, EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS. WINDS WILL FRESHEN IN THE N-CENTRAL AND NW GULF
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO MODERATE TO
FRESH IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT DUE TO
THE GRADIENT RELATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
SEEN IN AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. MODERATE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER
THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE SEA. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE E OF
80W, AND 1-2 FT W OF 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE, AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUE OR WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
S-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES, AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK,
EXCEPT SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N74W, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 31N74.5W,
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND TO NEAR 24N80W. MODERATE WINDS ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL W OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N,
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH THAT IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION
NEAR 36N33W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM
15N TO 25N E OF 65W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE
NOTED, EXCEPT NEAR THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS TO
THE E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUE, BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE WEEK, INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE N PROVIDING FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOME OF THE ZONES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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