842
AXNT20 KNHC 151806
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1806 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL92):
A BROAD ARE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
NEAR 38.3W FROM 01N TO 20N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 32.5W AND 40W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE REACHING TO 8 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER AN AREA FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N
TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 52.5W FROM
02N TO 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 49W AND 53.5W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 71.5W SOUTH
OF 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11.9N38.3W
(AL92) TO 09N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES AND THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 38W AD 45W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN THE COAST
OF AFRICA AND 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE BASIN.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH
THE WEEK SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. WINDS WILL
FRESHEN IN THE N-CENTRAL AND NW GULF TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT. WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT RELATED TO A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW AND
W CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERN END OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
TRIGGERING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH
OF 14N AND WEST OF 80W. FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE SEA. SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF 80W, AND 1-2 FT W OF 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INTO TUE NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE OR WED. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS INTO MID-
WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM A LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N74W, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
29N71W. MODERATE SW WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL W OF
THE TROUGH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
NORTH OF 26.5N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH THAT IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N34W. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 25N E OF 65W,
WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED, EXCEPT NEAR THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. OTHERWISE,
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS BY THU OR
FRI.
KRV
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