775
AXNT20 KNHC 152355
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL92):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
ANALYZED ALONG 40W, ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS
AND 8 FT SEAS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 33W AND 44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 17N
BETWEEN 34W AND 47W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION,
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS
LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 54W SOUTH OF
20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 72.5W SOUTH
OF 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W, AL92,
TO 09N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
AND THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N EAST OF 22W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE
BASIN. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH
THE WEEK SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. WINDS WILL
FRESHEN IN THE N-CENTRAL AND NW GULF TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW AND
W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 77W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BASIN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4
TO 6 FT RANGE E OF 80W, AND 1 TO 3 FT W OF 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TRADES
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO TUE NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS INTO WED. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
MODERATE NE WINDS PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS A 1016 MB LOW
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA, EXTENDING FROM 31N64W TO 27N71W, AND
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 37N30W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO
25N E OF 65W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE
NOTED, EXCEPT NEAR THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO
FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN WATERS BY THU INTO FRI.
ADAMS
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