221
AXNT20 KNHC 161034
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (INVEST AL92):
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 42W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS A BROAD 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE (AL92) NEAR 12N42W. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. AT THIS TIME, FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE LOW, WITH ROUGH SEAS. NUMEROUS
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 18N
BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION,
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE VISIT THE NHC WEBSITE:
HTTPS://NHC.NOAA.GOV/CYCLONES/?ATL FOR MORE DETAIL.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THIS ANALYSIS, WITH AXIS
ALONG 16W, MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 57W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE, MAINLY N OF 15N.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 75W FROM NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA, MOVING WEST
AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
JAMAICA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W TO 10N50W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO INVEST AL92, NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE, A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS
SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE NE TO E WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS FOR THE
EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF,
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN
THROUGH THE WEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN.
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT TO GENERATE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 26N CONTINUES TO SUPPLY A TRADE-WIND
REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE NORTH- CENTRAL, EASTERN AND PART OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS, LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD
PASSAGE. GENTLE NNE TO E WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON INVEST AL92 AND THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N65W IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N37W IS SUSTAINING
GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 35W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AL92 DESCRIBED IN THE
SECTION ABOVE, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THU INTO FRI.
ERA
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