761
AXNT20 KNHC 161806
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (INVEST AL92):
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 41.5W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS A BROAD 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE (AL92) NEAR 13.4N41.5W. AT
THIS TIME, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED WITHIN
THE LOW. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS NEAR THIS
SYSTEM AS GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 18/00Z. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 18N
BETWEEN 34W AND 49W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 17.5W, MOVING W AT AROUND 10
KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
WAVE FROM 11N-15N EAST OF 20.5W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 60W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 55.5W AND 61W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 77W FROM NEAR CENTRAL
JAMAICA SOUTHWARD TO NW COLOMBIA, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR JAMAICA, NW COLOMBIA,
AND PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W TO 09N50W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE
AND INVEST AL92, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM
11N TO 13W BETWEEN 23.5W AND 27W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE, A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. IS SUPPORTING
MOSTLY GENTLE NE TO E WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH
THE WEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT TO GENERATE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE EASTERN END OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH
OF 12N AND WEST OF 76W.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 22N CONTINUES TO SUPPLY A TRADE-WIND
REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN
THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON INVEST AL92 AND THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 26N65W IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 24.5N TO 26.5N BETWEEN 63W AND
65W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 31N51W IS SUSTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W
AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN WATERS BY THU INTO FRI, WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
KRV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page