054
AXNT20 KNHC 162203
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (INVEST AL92): SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS, NEAR 13.5N42W AT 1007 MB ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY, ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 480 NM IN THE NE
QUADRANT AND SW SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE REACHING GALE FORCE BY WED NIGHT, WHILE SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 19.5W, MOVING W AT
AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO
14N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 42W AND IS DESCRIBED
ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION WITH INVEST AL92.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 61W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO NEAR THE BORDER OF VENEZUELA AND GUYANA,
MOVING W AT AROUND 5 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 15N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 78W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS WESTERN
JAMAICA AND NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA, CONTINUING
INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, MOVING W AT AROUND 10
KT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF NEARBY SE CUBA
AND JAMAICA, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N16W TO ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TO 11.5N34W TO LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST AL92, NEAR 13.5N42W TO 10N51W. ANY NEARBY DEEP
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE AND TROPICAL
WAVES ABOVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE, A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. NEAR
THE BORDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY
MODERATE WINDS N OF 25N AND W OF 87W, WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MODERATE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ NEAR THE TROUGH. SEAS
ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE E OF 90W, AND 2-4 FT RANGE W OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
MAINLY EAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT TO GENERATE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR AND OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA,
AND PANAMA NEAR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 29N CONTINUES TO SUPPLY A TRADE-WIND
REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THU NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN
THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THROUGH WED NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE BASIN. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON INVEST AL92 AND THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N48W TO 29N68W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS, ONE NEAR 31N37W AND
31N51W DOMINATE THE BASIN SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AWAY FROM INVEST AL92, AND MODERATE SEAS. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER, MODERATE TO FRESH FROM 07N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W,
WITH SIMILAR WINDS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AL92...LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS BY THU INTO FRI, WITH
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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