493
AXNT20 KNHC 170616
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (INVEST AL92):
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 43W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
THROUGH A 1007 MB LOW AT 14N43W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING
UP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOW FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FARTHER NORTH FROM
14N TO 21N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO S TO SSW
WINDS ARE SEEN UP TO 400 NM AT THE NORTHERN, AND UP TO 250 NM AT
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. SEAS IN
THESE AREAS RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FT. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT, WINDS IN THESE PERIPHERAL REGIONS WILL REACH GALE
FORCE BY WED EVENING, AND SEAS UNDER THESE WINDS CAN BUILD TO
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 20W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATED TO AL92 AND MENTIONED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 62W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. WITHIN THIS
CONVECTION, FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR-GALE ENE TO SE WINDS
AND 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT. FARTHER WEST, WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA TO THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN.
IT IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATED THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AND OFFSHORE
FROM NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI AND NEARBY WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR DAKAR, MEANDERS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS INVEST AREA AL92,
NEAR 11N43W TO 10N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W, AND UP TO
150 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 46W AND 51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SPORADIC STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE, A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DOMINATING
MUCH OF THE GULF. MAINLY GENTLE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3
FT ARE SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO ESE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
GULF THROUGH THE WEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS ALONG
WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE CENTRAL BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS DOMINATE WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG ENE WINDS AND SEAS
AT 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN INTO THU NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THROUGH WED NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
TRACK FROM THE EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THU, SPREADING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WESTWARD. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING FOR
DETAILS ON INVEST AL92 AND A GALE WARNING.
MODEST CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS ARE AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND GREAT BAHAMA BANK. FARTHER EAST, AN MID-LEVEL LOW
IS GENERATING SIMILAR CONDITIONS FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND
68W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS
AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N52W IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO
E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF AL92 AND
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT DOMINATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE TO SW WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT ON AL92,
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
WATERS BY THU INTO FRI, WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page