670
AXNT20 KNHC 171043
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES NEAR 14N45W ARE NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN. T.D. SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 45.9W AT
17/0900 UTC OR 1030 NM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING
W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ROUGH
SEAS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN 41W AND
52W. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SEVEN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 22W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 19W
AND 23W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED WITH AXIS NEAR 63W
FROM 21N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE,
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W AND S OF 20N,
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS, WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W TO 12N53W.
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 22W AND THE NOW T.D. SEVEN.
..GULF OF AMERICA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SPORADIC STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE, A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DOMINATING
MUCH OF THE GULF. MAINLY GENTLE NE TO E WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OF
ARE SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ESE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
GULF THROUGH THE WEEK SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS ALONG
WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT AT
THE CENTRAL BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS DOMINATE
WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THU NIGHT, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE BASIN. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON T.D SEVEN AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODEST CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS ARE AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND GREAT BAHAMA BANK. FARTHER EAST, AN MID-LEVEL LOW
IS GENERATING SIMILAR CONDITIONS FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND
68W.
A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N52W IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO
E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF T.D. SEVEN
AND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO
SW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WILL
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.8N 47.4W THIS AFTERNOON,
MOVE TO 17.6N 49.6W THU MORNING, 19.0N 51.9W THU AFTERNOON, 19.7N
54.0W FRI MORNING, 20.4N 55.9W FRI AFTERNOON, AND 21.6N 57.6W SAT
MORNING. SEVEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER 24.0N 60.0W BY
EARLY SUN.
ERA
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