623
AXNT20 KNHC 171641
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1641 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NEWLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N
46.6W AT 17/1500 UTC OR 940 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS,
MOVING NNW AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. AN
ERRATIC NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A REDUCED
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT SOME GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08.5N TO 22.5N
BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
GABRIELLE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 22.5W
FROM 19N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 17N
AND FROM 04N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED WITH AXIS NEAR 64.5W
FROM 21.5N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE,
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 85W AND S OF 20N,
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS, OVER THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 11N39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 03N TO 11N, AND
EAST OF 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SPORADIC STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE NW GULF. MAINLY GENTLE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA NEAR THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE CENTRAL BASIN. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS DOMINATE WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. MODERATE ENE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN
THE WAKE OF THE WAVE INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON T.S. GABRIELLE AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODEST CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS ARE AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 75.5W INCLUDING
THE BAHAMAS AND GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N43W IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO
E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF T.S.
GABRIELLE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
DOMINATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN
WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, NEWLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM
GABRIELLE IS NEAR 17.5N 46.6W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. GABRIELLE
WILL MOVE TO 19.5N 48.5W THIS EVENING, AND 20.8N 50.6W THU
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR 21.8N 52.6W THU
EVENING, 22.7N 54.6W FRI MORNING, 23.5N 56.6W FRI EVENING, AND
24.7N 58.3W SAT MORNING. GABRIELLE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SUN.
KRV
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