863
AXNT20 KNHC 172120
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU SEP 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 48.0W AT 17/2100
UTC OR 860 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING NW AT 12
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 18 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 120 NM AND 570 NM
N THE NE QUADRANT, AND BETWEEN 240 NM AND 660 NM IN THE S AND SW
QUADRANTS. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
GABRIELLE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
23.5W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS, MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS BEEN RELOCATED AND EXTENDS
ALONG 68W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK AND GUSTY WINDS PER
THE NWS SAN JUAN OFFICE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AT 21N SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL
HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE BORDER OF MAURITANIA
AND SENEGAL NEAR 16.5N16.5W TO S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
11.5N24W TO 08N35W TO SE OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE NEAR
11.5N39W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 30.5W AND
34.5W. INTENSE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AFRICA AND NEAR THE COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SPORADIC STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF. A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN GULF,
FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W
OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 22.5N TO 26.5N BETWEEN 92W AND THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A WEAK
AND BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WINDS
ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE BASIN, LOCALLY HIGH NEAR
CONVECTION AND OFFSHORE VERACRUZ TO THE W OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE
1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF, AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE FAR SE BASIN WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA NEAR THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING OVER AND NEAR JAMAICA AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. FOR WINDS, MODERATE E TO SE FLOW PREVAILS,
EXCEPT NE JUST W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS
ARE 3-6 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MAINLY 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GULF OF HONDURAS,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
GABRIELLE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
BASIN.
MODEST CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS ARE AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 73W, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS AND W
OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE SW-W TO ALONG 30N OR SO.
AWAY FROM GABRIELLE, THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS, HIGHEST NEAR GABRIELLE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, GABRIELLE WILL MOVE TO 20.6N 49.7W
THU MORNING, 21.7N 51.6W THU AFTERNOON, AND 22.7N 53.5W FRI
MORNING. GABRIELLE WILL REACH 23.5N 55.5W FRI AFTERNOON, 24.7N
57.4W SAT MORNING, AND 26.2N 59.0W SAT AFTERNOON. GABRIELLE WILL
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE SE OF BERMUDA SUN AFTERNOON. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
LEWITSKY
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