698
AXNT20 KNHC 241822
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED SEP 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING (INVEST AL93): 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
NEAR 19N54W, ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W.
AL93 HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE, ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CURRENT 8-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV AND THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
SEE ABOVE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AL93.
A TROPICAL WAVE (AL94) IS ALONG 66W, FROM 22N SOUTHWARD, MOVING
WEST AT AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15-20 KT, SPREADING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS INTO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY, AND ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD WHEN
IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A
FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS, AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO PERFORM A SYSTEM SURVEY THIS AFTERNOON TO GATHER DATA FROM THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, IF NECESSARY. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE: WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W, FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR DAKAR, SENEGAL,
AND CONTINUES TO 10N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N30W TO 07N39W.
A SECOND SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N43W TO 06N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 42W AND
50W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUPPORTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF.
THE DIURNAL TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS RIDGE INTO THE NE GULF INTO THU TO SUPPORT
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF BY EARLY
FRI, REACH FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO NEAR CABO ROJO, MEXICO BY
SAT EVENING, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY LATE
SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST AL94).
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION, ENHANCED BY THE
EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH, IS EVIDENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
THE COAST OF PANAMA NORTH TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. ELSEWHERE,
THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
AND 4-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, TRADES ARE PULSING TO FRESH SPEEDS AND
SEAS ARE LOCALLY 6-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE (AL94) MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. EXPECT MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SUN, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR INVEST AL93, WHICH IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOTED WITH THE
TROUGH AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES,
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL IN OPEN
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON INVEST AL93. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE OR LESSER SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MAHONEY
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