642
AXNT20 KNHC 242348
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU SEP 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
FORMER INVEST-AL93 HAS FORMED INTO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO, AND
IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 54.9W AT 24/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 480 NM ENE
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE,
AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRICAL. IN ADDITION, NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS INCREASING OVER THE CENTER AND WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 90 NM SE
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N55W TO 19N53W.
HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT MOTION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
A TROPICAL WAVE, INVEST-AL94, IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 22N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND
69W. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 18N TO
22N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SPREADING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WHEN THE DISTURBANCE IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK. INTERESTS IN PUERTO
RICO, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND
THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE WAVE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF A BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO HE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 41W FROM
02N TO 15N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO
10N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 16N17W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N32W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 07N39W. IT CONTINUES FROM 07N43W TO
06N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 42W, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 24N89W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE NORTHWEST PART OF CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOME SECTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IS PRESENT OVER THE BASIN. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
30N84W TO 27N86W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
VARIABLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF, AND ALSO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS RIDGE INTO THE NE GULF INTO THU
ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY EARLY FRI, REACH FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
TO NEAR CABO ROJO, MEXICO BY SAT EVENING, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY LATE SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST-AL94).
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ALLOWING
FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADES ARE OVER
THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TO ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SEAS OVER THIS PART OF THE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. LOWER
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE IN THE THE LEE OF CUBA, AND NEAR COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 12N AND
WEST OF THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA TO INLAND COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER CUBA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HAITI AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE, INVEST-AL94, OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH, SPREADING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. THE SYSTEM
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD WHEN IT
REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO,
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND THE
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO
FRESH EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOTED WITH THE
TROUGH AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF SPECIAL FEATURES, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN ALLOWING
FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO HAS
DEVELOPED, CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 54.9W AT 5 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 20.9N 56.0W THU MORNING, 21.6N 57.0W THU
AFTERNOON, 22.0N 57.5W FRI MORNING, 22.5N 58.2W FRI AFTERNOON,
22.9N 59.0W SAT MORNING, AND STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 23.6N
60.6W SAT AFTERNOON. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO 26.0N 64.3W BY SUN AFTERNOON.
AGUIRRE
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