005
AXNT20 KNHC 250557
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU SEP 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 55.8W AT 25/0300
UTC OR 440 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE CLOUD
PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE, AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL. IN ADDITION, NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS DEPICTED OVER THE CENTER AND WITHIN 80 NM NE
AND 120 NM E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N AND S OF THE CENTER. HUMBERTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
A TROPICAL WAVE, INVEST-AL94, IS ALONG 67.7W SOUTH OF 21N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
68W. THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT, SPREADING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TODAY. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD WHEN
IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM WHEN THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO, THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC, HAITI, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND THE BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE WAVE HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF A BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO HE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 42.5W FROM 01N
TO 14N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 14N17W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO 12N60W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION RELATED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 42.5W, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W AND BETWEEN 47W AND 55W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIVERGENCE
ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER SOME SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
27N85W PREVAILS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE IS SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF, AND ALSO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS RIDGE INTO THE NE GULF INTO THU TO SUPPORT
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF BY EARLY
FRI, REACH FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO NEAR CABO ROJO, MEXICO BY
SAT EVENING, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY LATE
SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST-AL94).
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED SOUTH OF 12N AND
WEST OF THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA TO INLAND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER CUBA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HAITI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTH- CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN
ARE 2 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT, SPREADING HEAVY RAINFALL,
GUSTY ROUGH WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS INTO PUERTO RICO,
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THIS
WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF AND THE
BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF SPECIAL
FEATURES, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS NEAR
20.7N 55.8W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 21.4N
56.7W THU MORNING, 21.9N 57.3W THU EVENING, 22.4N 57.9W FRI
MORNING, 22.9N 58.8W FRI EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
23.4N 60.1W SAT MORNING, AND 24.0N 62.0W SAT EVENING. HUMBERTO
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 26.3N 66.0W
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA BY LATE SUN. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK. AT A MINIMUM,
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KRV
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