496
AXNT20 KNHC 250938
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU SEP 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 56.4W AT 25/0900
UTC OR 420 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING NW AT
9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ONGOING SHEAR
IS EXPOSING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF HUMBERTO
THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER,
AND 240 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE SHEAR,
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN INTENSIFY MORE AFTERWARD AS THE SHEAR
RELAXES, AND IT MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
A TROPICAL WAVE, INVEST-AL94, IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 21N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE ONGOING OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MAY BE FORMING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THIS MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO BROAD LOW
PRESSURE INDICATED GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA AND
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY OR FRI. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM WHEN THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS
LATE THIS WEEK. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC,
HAITI, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 44W FROM 01N
TO 14N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N40W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N47W TO 10N55W TO 10N60W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 42.5W, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W
AND WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVE
IS AHEAD A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO
ACTIVE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
GULF. ELSEWHERE, 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE NE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY STALLING
SAT FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO SOUTH TEXAS, THEN DISSIPATING SUN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST-AL94).
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED SOUTH OF 12N AND WEST
OF THE COAST OF NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO INLAND COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACTIVE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR PUERTO BARRIOS,
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 78W AND 83W NORTH OF 16N, AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT FOLLOW
THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE BREEZES
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH
FRI, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE NORTHERN END OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THAT
WILL LEAVE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES WITH SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF AND THE
BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF SPECIAL
FEATURES, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS NEAR 21.2N 56.4W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 21.7N 57.0W THIS AFTERNOON, 22.1N 57.6W
FRI MORNING, 22.6N 58.4W FRI AFTERNOON, AND 23.0N 59.4W SAT
MORNING. HUMBERTO WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 23.5N 61.0W
SAT AFTERNOON, AND THEN MOVE TO 24.3N 63.0W SUN MORNING. HUMBERTO
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 26.7N 66.8W EARLY
MON. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK. AT A MINIMUM, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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