597
AXNT20 KNHC 251815
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU SEP 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 56.8W AT 25/1500
UTC OR 400 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING NW AT 7
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N TO
24N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 18 FT NEAR THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO AND A
MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HUMBERTO WILL
MOVE TO 21.8N 57.3W THIS EVENING, 22.1N 57.9W FRI MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 22.4N 58.8W FRI EVENING, 22.8N
60.1W SAT MORNING, 23.4N 61.9W SAT EVENING, AND 24.2N 64.0W SUN
MORNING. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
27.0N 67.8W EARLY MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC (AL94):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 70W NEAR HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WHEN IT
MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, HAITI, THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS, AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, THE CHANCES OF WIND, RAINFALL, AND STORM
SURGE IMPACTS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ARE
INCREASING. INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE SYSTEM.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED NEAR 44W, FROM
01N TO 14N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W, AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N45W TO
10N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 13N
BETWEEN 26N AND 54W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF, EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN
BASIN, GENERALLY NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 86W. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
RECENT BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF SOUTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 95W. OTHERWISE, RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER THE REST OF THE BASIN, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
E TO SE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF, AND MODERATE W
TO SW WINDS PREVAIL TO THE NORTH. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
TODAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY STALLING SAT FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF TO SOUTH TEXAS, THEN DISSIPATING SUN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST AL94).
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE OF PANAMA THROUGH SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA, AND THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE EASTERN EXTENSION
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. OTHERWISE, RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE
WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 70W. MODERATE E TO NE WINDS
ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWESTERN BASIN. RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 2 TO 4 FT SEAS IN THIS REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE WAVE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN
IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES WITH SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND ON THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N77.5W TO 25N80W OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO
31N72W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED VIA
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA ON THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE
GABRIELLE CENTERED NEAR 36.7N35.1W, GENERALLY NORTH OF 27.5N
BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. OTHERWISE, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, SUPPORTING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS NEAR
21.4N 56.8W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 21.8N 57.3W
THIS EVENING, 22.1N 57.9W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 22.4N 58.8W FRI EVENING, 22.8N 60.1W SAT MORNING, 23.4N 61.9W
SAT EVENING, AND 24.2N 64.0W SUN MORNING. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 27.0N 67.8W BY EARLY MON.
MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK. AT A MINIMUM, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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