592
AXNT20 KNHC 260015
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 57.0W AT 25/2100
UTC OR 410 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING NW AT 5
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS
ARE ABOUT 19 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS ITS OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRIC WITH TIME. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 19N54W TO 22N55W. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON FRIDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC ( INVEST-AL94):
A TROPCIAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO THE AREA OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS NORTH OF 15N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. OVERALL, THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI
WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATE FRI OR OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, HAITI, THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, THE CHANCES OF WIND, RAINFALL,
AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST ARE INCREASING. INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF A
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO HE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 45W FROM 03N
TO 15N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 10N,
AND WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 10N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N16W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 11N22W, THEN WESTWARD TO 11N30W AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N36W AND WESTWARD TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 09N46W TO 09N55W AND TO NEAR 11N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 31W-37W AND WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 28W-31W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF. IT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO INLAND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 27N WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT TO NEAR
88W NORTH OF 27N. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
GENTLE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 86W AND NORTH OF 27N. ELSEWHERE,
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS
ARE 2 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH TONIGHT,
EVENTUALLY STALLING SAT FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO SOUTH TEXAS,
THEN DISSIPATING SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST AL94) THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A FAIRLY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT
EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NEAR 72W, WHERE MODERATE TO
FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PRESENT. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 3 TO 5 FT EAST OF THE WAVE AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 FT WEST
OF THE WAVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W. AN AREA LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI
WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATE FRI OR OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES WITH SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INVEST-
AL94.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N78W TO JUST EAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED TO
THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 31N72W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOTED
PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF NOW POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, GENERALLY
NORTH OF 27.5N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. OTHERWISE, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS,
SUPPORTING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO
22.3N 57.4W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 22.5N
58.0W FRI AFTERNOON, 22.7N 59.1W SAT MORNING, 23.0N 60.8W SAT
AFTERNOON, 23.6N 62.7W SUN MORNING, AND 24.6N 64.7W SUN
AFTERNOON. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
TO 28.0N 68.2W BY MON AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT A MINIMUM, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS,
ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BAHAMAS AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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