762
AXNT20 KNHC 260549
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0548UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 57.1W AT 26/0300
UTC OR 410 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING NW AT 3
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
ABOUT 20 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS ITS OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC WITH
TIME. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE SW SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM W OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND S OF THE CENTER. A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY, AND A MAJOR
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC ( INVEST-AL94):
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO THE AREA OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS NORTH OF 16N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE TODAY WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THEN TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ONGOING
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, HAITI, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AN EASTERN CUBA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN ALL OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM, THE CHANCES OF WIND, RAINFALL, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ARE INCREASING. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF A
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER
TO HE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED NEAR 25W, FROM
04.5N TO 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS FOUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO NEAR 54.5W
FROM 03N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 07N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 11N25W, THEN WESTWARD TO 09N46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 04N TO 14N
BETWEEN 27W AND 47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N88W TO 24N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG AND AS FAR AS 150 NM SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. GENTLE
TO MODERATE W WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. ELSEWHERE,
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
TO THE NE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN DISSIPATE SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST AL94) THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN,
EXCEPT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NEAR 72W, WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PRESENT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 6 FT EAST OF 72W, AND ABOUT 2 TO 5
FT WEST OF 72W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE WAVE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES
WITH SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INVEST-
AL94.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 31N74W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST-AL94),
TROPICAL STORMS HUMBERTO, AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 68W AND
73W, ALONG WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE PERIPHERY OF NOW POST- TROPICAL
CYCLONE GABRIELLE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, GENERALLY NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 31W AND 40W. OTHERWISE, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS NEAR
22.2N 57.1W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. HUMBERTO WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 22.4N 57.6W FRI MORNING, MOVE TO 22.7N 58.5W FRI
EVENING, 22.9N 59.9W SAT MORNING, 23.4N 61.8W SAT EVENING, 24.3N
63.8W SUN MORNING, AND 25.4N 65.7W SUN EVENING. HUMBERTO WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 29.0N 69.0W LATE MON.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
LATE FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AT A MINIMUM, THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KRV
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