157
AXNT20 KNHC 261058
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 57.3W AT 26/0900 UTC
OR 400 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING NW AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ABOUT 21
FT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND HUMBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC (INVEST-AL94):
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS. THIS
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE TODAY WHEN IT
MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THEN TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. INTERESTS
IN THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF A BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO HE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 26W,
FROM 04N TO 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 03N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 55W
SOUTH OF 13N, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 11N33W, THEN WESTWARD TO 09N46W.
FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
GULF IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY, THEN
DISSIPATE SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST AL94) THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W, INVEST AL94, IS PRODUCING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS
ARE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE TODAY WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN
IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES WITH SLIGHT SEAS
ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH INVEST- AL94.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR 22.2N 57.3W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 65 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 22.3N 57.8W
THIS AFTERNOON, 22.6N 59.0W SAT MORNING, 22.9N 60.5W SAT
AFTERNOON, 23.5N 62.5W SUN MORNING, 24.5N 64.2W SUN AFTERNOON, AND
26.0N 66.0W MON MORNING. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES NEAR 29.7N 68.8W EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE, A LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AT A MINIMUM, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAMOS
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