748
AXNT20 KNHC 261740
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500 UTC OR
390 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING NW AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 57W AND
59W, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FARTHER EAST TO
54W. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 24 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO.
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON SATURDAY. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 22.5N 58.3W THIS EVENING,
22.9N 59.6W SAT MORNING, 23.3N 61.3W SAT EVENING, 24.1N 63.3W SUN
MORNING, 25.3N 65.2W SUN EVENING, AND 26.8N 66.9W MON MORNING.
HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 30.6N
68.8W EARLY TUE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC (AL94):
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FORMING NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 74W.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED, AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, HAITI, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA, AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF WIND,
RAINFALL, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED AND
IS ANALYZED ALONG 30W, FROM 05N TO 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG
57W SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND
EXTENDS TO 06N23W TO 11N32W TO 10N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 15N EAST OF 20W, AND FROM 02N
TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST NEAR
30N88W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER NEAR 26N97W, AND A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS TO THE EAST FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE WEST-CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 22N96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. MODERATE N TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH
PREVAILS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN, AND MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN
THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE, AND MAINLY MODERATE E WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THIS
TROUGH. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY,
THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON INVEST AL94 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 74W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 15N FROM HISPANIOLA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE NE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS PRODUCING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR OVER
THE WEEKEND, AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES WITH SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON AL94 IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS NORTH OF THE
AREA ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 73W. FARTHER SOUTH,
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AL94 AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W.
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. FARTHER
NORTH, WEAK RIDGING IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
NORTH OF HUMBERTO TO THE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE, AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOW MODERATE E TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT,
WITH LOCALLY MODERATE SW TO W WINDS TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR 22.3N
57.7W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 22.5N 58.3W THIS
EVENING, 22.9N 59.6W SAT MORNING, 23.3N 61.3W SAT EVENING, 24.1N
63.3W SUN MORNING, 25.3N 65.2W SUN EVENING, AND 26.8N 66.9W MON
MORNING. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
30.6N 68.8W BY EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND,
AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT A MINIMUM, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS,
ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BAHAMAS
AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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