324
AXNT20 KNHC 270006
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 22.3N 58.1W AT 26/2100 UTC
OR 370 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 4
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PEAK SEAS
ARE NEAR 25 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM DURING THE DAY REVEALS
THAT HUMBERTO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF
THE 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. IT IS COMPACT IN SIZE. THE
EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS CLEARED. IT IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 45 TO 60 NM ELSEWHERE AROUND THE EYE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWEHRE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MON. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELL GENERATED BY
HUMBERTO WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND BERMUDA THIS
WEEKEND. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
NEW POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.9N 74.6W
AT 26/2100 UTC OR 50 NM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, MOVING
NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST WHAT EARLIER WAS INVEST-94L IS NOW
GRADUALLY ORGANIZING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND
75W, AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THIS WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT FORECAST TO BRING 8 TO 12 FT INCHES OF RAINFALL TO
EASTERN CUBA, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16 INCHES POSSIBLE
AND 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE BAHAMAS. 2 TO 4 FT INCHES OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CUBA. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND JAMAICA. AN
INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH COASTAL GEORGIA WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH, URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SWELL GENERATED BY BOTH THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NINE
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TOPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 31W FROM 04N
TO 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W, AND
WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 10N TO 14N 29W AND 33W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 58W SOUTH OF
16N TO INLAND SOUTH AMERICA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE FROM 09N TO 12N.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 75W. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS SOUTH OF POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OF THE WAVE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N23W, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO 11N31W
AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N36W, NORTHWESTWARD AGAIN TO 11N40W AND TO
10N47W. ASIDE FROM CONEVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 19W-29W,
AND WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 33W-40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
DESTIN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N90W AND TO INLAND EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AT 23N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W, SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N87W AND TO 24N91W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN SOUTHEAST OF FRONT BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
FRONT FROM 25N TO 28N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF FRONT BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY AND PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 93W AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WEST OF 93W. SEAS ARE 2
TO 3 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SEAS ALSO OF 2 TO 3 FT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH SAT, THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 75W.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS PRODUCING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN IT IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR OVER
THE WEEKEND, AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES WITH SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON NEW
POTENTIAL CYCLONE NINE.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS NORTH OF THE
AREA ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA EAST TO NEAR 75W. FARTHER
SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE PRESENT
FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NEAR 75W. ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THIS
PART OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF HUMBERTO TO THE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
NORTH OF THIS FRONT, AND MOSTLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS TO ITS SOUTH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5
TO 6 FT SEAS ARE OVER THE WATERS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO
22.4N 59.0W SAT MORNING, 22.8N 60.5W SAT AFTERNOON, 23.4N 62.4W
SUN MORNING, 24.6N 64.3W SUN AFTERNOON, 26.0N 66.0W MON MORNING,
AND 27.7N 67.5W MON AFTERNOON. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 31.7N 68.8W BY TUE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IS NEAR 20.9N 74.6W AT 5 PM EDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. NINE
WILL MOVE TO 21.7N 75.3W SAT MORNING, 22.7N 75.8W SAT AFTERNOON,
24.1N 76.4W SUN MORNING, 25.6N 76.9W SUN AFTERNOON, 27.4N 77.3W
MON MORNING, AND 29.7N 78.0W MON AFTERNOON. PTC NINE WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 31.8N 78.9W BY TUE AFTERNOON.
AGUIRRE
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