365
AXNT20 KNHC 270617
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 22.1N 58.7W
AT 27/0300 UTC OR 340 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, AND
MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. PEAK SEAS
ARE NEAR 33 FT NEAR THE CENTER. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN HALF AND 25
NM IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE. CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS FEEDING TOWARD HUMBERTO ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
55W AND 58W. A WESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN, THEN
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MON, BEFORE TURNING NORTH-NORTHWEST MON
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
PUERTO RICO, AND BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 76.0W AT
27/0300 UTC OR 125 NM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, AND MOVING
NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS ARE
PEAKING NEAR 10 FT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND AND ACKLINS ISLAND. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SAT NIGHT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
AFTERWARD AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY SAT, THEN
POSSIBLY A HURRICANE LATE MON. HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA,
HISPANIOLA, AND JAMAICA. HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH COASTAL GEORGIA WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH,
URBAN AND RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY BOTH
THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
ON BOTH SYSTEMS, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TOPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 34W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN
25W AND 35W.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 60W FROM THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE VENEZUELA-GUYANA BORDER. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 77W FROM NEAR JAMAICA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 15
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT AT
THE LEE OF CUBA, AND NEAR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N22W BEFORE
TURNING WESTWARD TO 09N46W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W
AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SENEGAL, GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR AND UP TO 95 NM
NORTH OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 42W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA AND
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR 24N92W, THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
BEYOND TAMPICO, MEXICO. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE NOTED UP TO 50 NM ALONG
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CREATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AT THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
A MODEST 1012 MB HIGH AT THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS AT THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. MAINLY GENTLE NW TO NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TONIGHT WHILE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. AFTERWARD, THE PASSAGE
OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD
TO OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS COUPLING WITH
CONVERGENT TRADES TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE EASTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA
DUE TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO
SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE
WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAIL INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON POTENTIAL
CYCLONE NINE IN THE BAHAMAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
ACROSS 31N80W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING UP JUST OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A ROBUST UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO, FRESH TO
STRONG SE TO S WINDS WITH 10 TO 16 FT SEAS ARE JUST ADJACENT EAST
OF THE FORECAST PATH. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE E TO
SSE WINDS WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 55W
AND 35W. FARTHER WEST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE
TO SSE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT DOMINATE THE SIDE OF THE
ATLANTIC. FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE WITH
LOCALLY MODERATE E TO S WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO
22.2N 59.8W SAT MORNING, 22.7N 61.6W SAT EVENING, 23.6N 63.5W SUN
MORNING, AND 24.8N 65.3W SUN EVENING. IT WILL REACH 26.2N 67.0W
MON MORNING, AND 27.9N 68.2W MON EVENING. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 32.1N 68.2W LATE TUE.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. NINE WILL MOVE TO 22.2N 76.6W
SAT MORNING, 23.3N 77.0W SAT EVENING, AND 24.8N 77.5W SUN
MORNING. THEN IT WILL TRAVEL TO 26.3N 77.9W SUN EVENING, 28.2N
78.3W MON MORNING, AND 30.1N 78.9W MON EVENING. NINE WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 32.0N 79.2W LATE TUE..
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page