252
AXNT20 KNHC 271054
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 59.3W AT 27/0900
UTC OR 330 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 5
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
35 FT NEAR THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. BY EARLY MONDAY, A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SWELLS GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND
BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 75.8W AT
27/0900 UTC OR 130 NM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, MOVING NW
AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS ARE
PEAKING NEAR 10 FT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER, WITH THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY SUNDAY, AND A HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY BOTH THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE
HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND
SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
ON BOTH SYSTEMS, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TOPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W FROM 04N TO 17N, MOVING WEST AROUND 15
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 02N TO 19N
BETWEEN 26W AND 37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 61W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD TO INLAND E
VENEZUELA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 78W FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
PANAMA, MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA ADJACENT WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W, THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N25W TO 09N46W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 12W AND 22W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
JUST N OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN BOTH THE NE AND SW GULF. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY STALL TODAY WHILE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, THE PASSAGE OF
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS BASIN-WIDE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS DOMINATE
THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA
DUE TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO N OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS
IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE
IN THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
NINE WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IN THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR 22.3N 59.3W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 150 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE IS NEAR 21.9N 75.8W AT 5 AM EDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO AND POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS TO
8 FT ARE BETWEEN THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND 35W. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 22.6N 60.5W
THIS AFTERNOON, 23.3N 62.3W SUN MORNING, 24.4N 64.3W SUN
AFTERNOON, 25.8N 66.0W MON MORNING, 27.3N 67.3W MON AFTERNOON, AND
29.1N 68.1W TUE MORNING. HUMBERTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES NEAR 33.4N 66.5W EARLY WED. NINE WILL MOVE TO 22.5N
76.4W THIS AFTERNOON, 23.8N 77.0W SUN MORNING, 25.3N 77.5W SUN
AFTERNOON, 27.0N 77.9W MON MORNING, 28.8N 78.5W MON AFTERNOON, AND
30.2N 78.8W TUE MORNING. NINE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES NEAR 31.5N 78.7W EARLY WED.
RAMOS
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