115
AXNT20 KNHC 271722
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 60.2W AT 27/1500
UTC OR 320 NM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 7
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND
62W. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 36 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HUMBERTO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY
HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND BERMUDA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING NEXT WEEK. SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
U.S. EAST COAST BEGINNING MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 76.2W AT 27/1500
UTC OR 160 NM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, MOVING NW AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND
78W. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 9 FT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
NINE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT AND A
HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BEGINNING LATER
TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ON
MONDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY BOTH THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE
HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND
SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
ON BOTH SYSTEMS, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED AND IS NEAR 33W FROM 05N TO
20N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 31W AND 36W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 62W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
VENEZUELA, MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 79W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN PANAMA,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W, THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N25W TO 09.5N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
09.5N41W TO 09N61W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N
TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 31W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
CONTINUES TO JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN
ANALYZED NORTH OF THIS FRONT FROM 27N88W TO 24N92W, AND A SECOND
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N93W TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THESE FEATURES
IN THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO
SE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE N TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL
OVER THE BASIN, AS OBSERVED VIA RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO, WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT, LEAVING THE BASIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS. CLOSER TO FLORIDA, NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE, WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS,
REMAINING E OF THE AREA, MAY CAUSE SOME MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN
THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE LEE OF CUBA,
INFLUENCED BY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CENTERED
NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 2 TO 5 FT
SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN, WITH 1 TO 2 FT
SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED N
OF CUBA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, AWAY FROM THE REGION, THIS WEEKEND,
LEAVING THE BASIN WITH A QUITE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MODERATE OR LESS WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 60.2W AT 27/1500
UTC OR 320 NM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 7
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 76.2W AT 27/1500
UTC OR 160 NM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, MOVING NW AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE, A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 26N47.5W, AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 175 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE, A 1024
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N23W EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS IN THIS REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR
22.7N 60.2W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 23.1N
61.5W THIS EVENING, 24.1N 63.4W SUN MORNING, AND 25.5N 65.3W SUN
EVENING. HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL BE NEAR 27.1N 66.8W MON MORNING,
29.0N 67.9W MON EVENING, AND 31.3N 68.2W TUE MORNING. HUMBERTO
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY WED. NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS NEAR 22.0N
76.2W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. NINE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 23.0N 76.7W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 24.4N 77.3W SUN
MORNING, THEN REACH 26.1N 77.7W SUN EVENING. TROPICAL STORM NINE
WILL BE NEAR 27.9N 78.2W MON MORNING, 29.6N 78.6W MON EVENING,
THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 30.7N 78.8W TUE MORNING.
ADAMS
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