574
AXNT20 KNHC 272332
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 61.1W AT 27/2100
UTC OR 305 NM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT
9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT,
MAKING HUMBERTO THE SECOND CATEGORY 5 SYSTEM OF THIS YEAR.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN
59W AND 62W. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 38 FT NE OF THE CENTER OF
HUMBERTO. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HUMBERTO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY AND THEN A N-NW MOTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SWELL
GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
HISPANIOLA, THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS, AND BERMUDA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SWELL FROM HUMBERTO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
U.S. EAST COAST BEGINNING MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 76.5W AT 27/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 90 NM S-SW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, MOVING NW AT 4
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
TO 9 FT JUST OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 24N AND 25N/ SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18.5N TO 25.5N
BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT AND A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ON MONDAY. SWELL
GENERATED BY BOTH THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
ON BOTH SYSTEMS, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 34W SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 31W AND 38W.
A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED NEAR 62W HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM TO 1800 UTC MAP. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOR CYCLONIC
TURNING OF WINDS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WEST AROUND 10
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN
76W AND 82W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W, THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07.5N25W TO 10.5N32W TO 09.5N41W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 09.5N41W TO 09N61W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 31W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 23N THEN WESTWARD TO THE
MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED
NORTH OF THIS FRONT FROM 27N88W TO 24N92W, AND A SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THESE FEATURES IN THE
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND EXTEND WELL INLAND ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT, WITH MODERATE NE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN, AS OBSERVED VIA
RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO, WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TONIGHT, LEAVING THE BASIN DOMINATED BY MODEST HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT
TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS. CLOSER TO FLORIDA, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS, REMAINING
E OF THE AREA, BUT POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN, AND T.D. NINE.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
LEE OF CUBA, INFLUENCED BY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
CENTERED NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 2
TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN, WITH 1
TO 2 FT SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE, LOCATED OFF THE NE
COAST OF CUBA, WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
THROUGH MON, LEAVING THE BASIN WITH A QUITE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY MODERATE OR LESS WINDS AND
SEAS INTO LATE NEXT NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE BETWEEN NE CUB AND THE BAHAMAS.
MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 61.1W 2100 UTC,
MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO
170 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 76.5W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE, A FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 25N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS TO THE SOUTH. TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HUMBERTO AND T.D. NINE, A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 33N58W
EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THESE WATERS W OF 60W, WHERE
SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN SE SWELL GENERATED FROM HUMBERTO. FARTHER
EAST, A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N23W EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S
OF 22N, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN THIS REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR
22.9N 61.1W AT 5 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 23.5N
62.7W SUN MORNING, 24.7N 64.6W SUN AFTERNOON, AND 26.2N 66.1W MON
MORNING. HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL REACH 28.0N 67.5W MON AFTERNOON,
30.0N 68.5W TUE MORNING, AND 32.1N 68.5W TUE AFTERNOON. HUMBERTO
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF
BERMUDA WED AFTERNOON. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS NEAR 22.2N
76.6W AT 5 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. NINE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 23.3N 77.1W SUN MORNING, THEN MOVE TO 24.9N 77.6W SUN
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM NINE WILL BE AT 26.7N 78.1W MON MORNING,
28.5N 78.6W MON AFTERNOON, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
30.0N 78.8W TUE MORNING. HURRICANE NINE WILL BE NEAR 30.8N 78.6W
TUE AFTERNOON. NINE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NORTH OF AREA WATERS WED AFTERNOON.
STRIPLING
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