001
AXNT20 KNHC 280624
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HUMBERTO, A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 62.1W AT
28/0300 UTC OR 315 NM NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, AND
MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 924 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. SEAS ARE
PEAKING AT 39 TO 41 FT NEAR THE CENTER. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN UP TO 85 NM ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF, AND UP
TO 45 NM ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF FROM THE CENTER. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED MON EVENING, THEN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUE BEFORE PASSING WEST OF BERMUDA TUE EVENING.
HUMBERTO WILL STAY NEAR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH SUN EVENING,
THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARD. SWELLS GENERATED BY
HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS,
VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND BERMUDA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THE
U.S. EAST COAST BY MON, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 76.7W AT 28/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND DRIFTING
NW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING
AT 11 FT NEAR EXUMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NEARBY GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND NEARBY WATERS. A
NORTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED SUN AND MON, WHICH WILL BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN NIGHT, THEN CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY SUN, AND MIGHT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE MON OR TUE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON SUN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA, GREATLY INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES AT HIGHER
TERRAINS OF CUBA. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MIGHT SPREAD INTO THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE COMBINED SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM
AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS
WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
ON BOTH SYSTEMS, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 36W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL PANAMA. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10
KT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS, AND NEAR THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE MAURITIAN COAST NEAR
NOUAKCHOTT, THEN MEANDERS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 08N26W TO 10N38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 220
NM NORTH AND 305 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 22W AND 34W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA
BIG BAND AREA TO A 1008 MB LOW AT THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
86W AND 91W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE
OCCURRING AT THE NORTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL GULF, AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. MAINLY GENTLE NNE TO NE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT, LEAVING THE BASIN DOMINATED BY MODEST
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS. CLOSER TO FLORIDA,
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS,
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA, BUT POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS FEEDING TOWARD TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AT THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK ARE COUPLING WITH A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AT THE
CENTRAL BASIN, SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
ARE PRESENT AT THE EASTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG SE TO SW TO NW WINDS AND 2 TO 5 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE LEE OF
CUBA, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) NINE LOCATED EAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA IN THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, AWAY
FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, CREATING A QUITE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY MODERATE
OR LESS WINDS AND SEAS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH TD NINE WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA
ADJACENT WATERS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY MON.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE AT THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS RELATED
SURFACE TROUGH ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING
SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE
BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT IMPACT OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO, FRESH TO STRONG
SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT ARE EVIDENT FROM 21N TO 26N
BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO SE WINDS WITH 10 TO 16
FT SEAS ARE NOTED FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SSE WINDS AND 4 TO 8
FT SEAS DOMINATE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA COAST. TO THE EAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE WITH LOCALLY
MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL
MOVE TO 24.1N 63.5W SUN MORNING, 25.4N 65.3W SUN EVENING AND 27.1N
66.9W MON MORNING. THEN IT WILL MOVE TO 29.1N 68.1W MON EVENING,
30.9N 68.7W TUE MORNING, AND 33.2N 67.8W TUE EVENING. HUMBERTO
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 37.0N 58.7W LATE
WED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 23.6N 77.0W SUN MORNING, MOVE TO 25.5N 77.5W SUN EVENING, AND
27.3N 77.9W MON MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO
HURRICANE NEAR 28.7N 78.2W MON EVENING, THEN PROGRESSES TO 29.9N
78.1W TUE MORNING, AND 30.4N 77.3W TUE EVENING. NINE WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 31.0N 75.0W LATE WED.
CHAN
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