497
AXNT20 KNHC 281104
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.9N 63.3W AT 28/0900 UTC
OR 510 NM S OF BERMUDA, MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 135
KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING AT 41 FT NEAR THE
CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 27N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN SPIRAL BANDS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 57W AND 67W. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO THEN
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE WEST OF BERMUDA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HUMBERTO IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HUMBERTO SHOULD REMAIN
A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS
GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND
BERMUDA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE U.S. EAST COAST BEGINNING MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 77.2W AT 28/0900
UTC OR 240 NM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, MOVING NNW AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING AT 10
FT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 16N
TO 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
EARLY THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY AND A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED
BY THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
ON BOTH SYSTEMS, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 38W, MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN
36W AND 41W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 81W FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO
WESTERN PANAMA. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST
NEAR 15N16W, THEN MEANDERS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 08N24W TO 09N39W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN
08W AND 20W, AND FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA TO A
1009 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR
THE LOW FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE
NW OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NW GULF WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE SLIGHT BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY,
LEAVING THE BASIN DOMINATED BY MODEST HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH WED. CLOSER TO FLORIDA, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS, REMAINING
E OF THE AREA. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE CONUS BY MID-WEEK
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS OVER THE NE GULF THU AND
FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ADJACENT WATERS AS
WELL AS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
LIKELY ONGOING WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE PROXIMITY OF MAJOR
HURRICANE HUMBERTO LOCATED NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS IN THE E CARIBBEAN
WHILE NINE IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED N OF CENTRAL CUBA
IN THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY, LEAVING THE BASIN WITH A QUITE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY MODERATE OR LESS WINDS
AND SEAS INTO LATE NEXT NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH NINE WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA ADJACENT WATERS
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY MON.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE AT THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR 23.9N 63.3W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 135
KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929
MB.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS NEAR 23.0N 77.2W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003
MB.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS EXTEND FROM W AFRICA TO
ABOUT 41W AND SUPPORT SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND
SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 24.9N 64.7W
THIS AFTERNOON, 26.4N 66.4W MON MORNING, 28.3N 67.8W MON
AFTERNOON, 30.3N 68.7W TUE MORNING, 32.5N 68.7W TUE AFTERNOON, AND
34.5N 67.1W WED MORNING. HUMBERTO WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
MOVES NEAR 38.2N 56.0W EARLY THU. NINE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 24.1N 77.4W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 25.7N
77.6W MON MORNING, 27.4N 77.8W MON AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 28.8N 77.8W TUE MORNING, 29.5N 77.4W TUE AFTERNOON,
AND 29.9N 75.5W WED MORNING. NINE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES NEAR 30.6N 72.1W EARLY THU.
RAMOS
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