675
AXNT20 KNHC 281658
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 64.3W AT 28/1500 UTC OR
390 NM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO ARE NEAR 41 FT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W, WITH SPIRAL
RAINBANDS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM
22N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. HUMBERTO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT, BUT HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HUMBERTO IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SWELLS
GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND
BERMUDA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE U.S. EAST COAST BEGINNING MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 77.3W AT 28/1500
UTC OR 260 NM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, MOVING N AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 73W
AND 79W. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
NINE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND A
HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. SWELLS
GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
ON BOTH SYSTEMS, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 39W FROM FROM 07N TO 22N, MOVING WEST
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N
TO 18N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 81.5W FROM 10N TO 21N, MOVING WEST AROUND
5 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N24W TO 09N40.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 12N EAST OF 20W, AND FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 25N AND 34W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1010 MB LOW PREVAILS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24.5N91W, AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST TO 27N89W, AND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF,
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN. FRESH N WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASIN. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE N WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH WED, EXCEPT FOR WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE FLORIDA COAST, WHERE THE WIND FIELD
FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE, MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH MON, WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N
WINDS. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LATE THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NE WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS IN THE NE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE,
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE BAHAMAS, ARE NOTED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE NW TO SW WINDS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING IN THIS REGION AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS NINE
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, THE PROXIMITY
OF MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, AS NOTED VIA SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN, WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR LESS WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS N OF JAMAICA,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH EARLY MON, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE, CENTERED N OF CENTRAL CUBA AND
MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE AT THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 64.3W AT 28/1500 UTC OR
390 NM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 77.3W AT 28/1500
UTC OR 260 NM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA, MOVING N AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N48W TO 08.5N48W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS. FARTHER NORTH, A 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N44W AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE FEATURES. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH
NE TO E WINDS EXTEND FROM W AFRICA TO 40W AND SUPPORT SEAS OF 6
TO 9 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR
24.6N 64.3W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 25.7N
65.7W THIS EVENING, 27.3N 67.2W MON MORNING, AND 29.3N 68.4W MON
EVENING. HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL REACH 31.6N 69.0W TUE MORNING,
33.7N 68.3W TUE EVENING, AND 35.6N 65.0W WED MORNING. HUMBERTO
WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES NE OF BERMUDA EARLY THU.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS NEAR 23.5N 77.3W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTH AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. NINE WILL
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 24.5N 77.4W THIS EVENING, THEN
MOVE TO 26.2N 77.6W MON MORNING. TROPICAL STORM NINE WILL REACH
27.7N 77.6W MON EVENING, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 28.8N
77.1W TUE MORNING. HURRICANE NINE WILL BE NEAR 29.3N 75.7W TUE
EVENING AND 29.9N 73.5W WED MORNING. NINE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF AREA WATERS EARLY THU.
ADAMS
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