584
AXNT20 KNHC 282316
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON SEP 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 65.4W AT 2100 UTC OR
410 NM S OF BERMUDA, MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO ARE
NEAR 42 FT (13 M). NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
24N TO 26.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W, WITH SPIRAL RAINBANDS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
61W AND 67W. HUMBERTO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HUMBERTO IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SWELL
GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
HISPANIOLA, PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, AND BERMUDA THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. SWELL FROM HUMBERTO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE U.S. EAST
COAST BEGINNING MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND
POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
IMELDA, CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 77.3W AT 2100 UTC, OR 50 NM SSW OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS, MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS TO 10 FT ARE OCCURRING TO THE NE OF
CENTER, TO THE SW AND E OF ELEUTHERA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
74.5W AND 79W, WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM 16N TO 34N
BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH MON
THEN TURN EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST, FOLLOWING HUMBERTO, TUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK. SWELL GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MON, AND SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ON MON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
ON BOTH SYSTEMS, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 40W SOUTH OF 22N, MOVING WEST AROUND 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 09.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 82W SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WEST AROUND 5
KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH A REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF IMELDA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14.5N17W AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N24W TO 09N40.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 22W, AND FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 26N AND 36W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1010 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT S-SW IN THE CENTRAL GULF, LOCATED
NEAR 24.5N91W, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
N TO NE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW, AND
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS 28N. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THIS
AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN. FRESH N WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SEAS OF 1
TO 3 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MON, THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, MODEST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS THROUGH WED. LATE THIS WEEK, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING NE WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE NE GULF THU AND FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM
IMELDA, CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, ARE
NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 15.5N AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CUBA, HISPANIOLA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
SHOW MODERATE NW TO SW WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THIS REGION AND
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS IMELDA SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES NORTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, THE PROXIMITY OF MAJOR HURRICANE
HUMBERTO LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AS
NOTED VIA SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN, WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR LESS WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS N OF JAMAICA,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH EARLY MON, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TROPICAL STORM IMELDA. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY
HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING, AND THEN
BUILD AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS HUMBERTO AND IMELDA MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL
STORM IMELDA OVER THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 65.4W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 77.3W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF
58W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINING WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS. SEAS OF 4
TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THESE WATER BEYOND THESE TWO
SYSTEMS. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N48W TO
08.5N48W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER NORTH, A 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N44W
AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED MILD THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE FEATURES. OTHERWISE, A
BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN,
CENTERED ON A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 41N21W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
RIDGE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS EXTEND FROM W AFRICA TO
45W AND SUPPORT SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 45W AND 58W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL MOVE
TO 26.8N 66.6W MON MORNING, NEAR 28.7N 67.9W MON AFTERNOON, AND
TO NEAR 30.8N 68.8W TUE MORNING. HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL BE NEAR
33.3N 68.7W TUE AFTERNOON, 35.2N 67.1W WED MORNING, AND 36.4N
62.9W WED AFTERNOON. HUMBERTO WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
MOVES WELL NE OF BERMUDA THU AFTERNOON. NEWLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL
STORM IMELDA IS NEAR 24.2N 77.3W AT 5 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH
AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT,
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. IMELDA WILL MOVE TO
25.5N 77.4W MON MORNING, TO NEAR 27.2N 77.4W MON AFTERNOON, AND
NEAR 28.4N 77.2W TUE MORNING. IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
A HURRICANE NEAR 29.2N 75.8W TUE AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE TO 29.8N
73.9W WED MORNING. HURRICANE IMELDA WILL THEN BE NEAR 30.7N 70.7W
WED AFTERNOON. IMELDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
N OF OUR AREA THU AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING BEHIND HUMBERTO.
STRIPLING
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