995
AXNT20 KNHC 290606
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON SEP 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 26.7N 66.6W AT 28/0600 UTC OR
350 NM SSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR
THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO ARE NEAR 44 FT (14 M). SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT HUMBERTO HAS A SMALL INNER CORE OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONVECTION, IN WIDE BANDING FORMATION, IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. AN OUTER RAINBAND OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE HURRICANE IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL PASS WELL WEST, AND THEN NORTH
OF BERMUDA ON TUE AND WED. HUMBERTO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER THAT, BUT HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELL
GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND
BERMUDA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SWELL FROM HUMBERTO WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE U.S. EAST COAST BEGINNING MON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 77.1W AT 29/0600 UTC
OR 110 NM NW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
IMELDA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE SINCE EARLIER
TODAY. THE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF ITS CIRCULATION FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN
73W AND 77W. IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION THROUGH MON. ON TUE, IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TO
THE EAST- NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN TURN A 1020 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 28N44W AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MILD THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE
FEATURES.EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND IMELDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY LATE MON OR ON TUE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS NEAR 43W/44W FROM 07N
TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP
PRETTY GOOD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND ITS RELATED AVAILABLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS WELL REFLECTED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM
09N TO 15N, AND ALSO NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE AXIS
FROM 10N TO 12N, AND ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 16N.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 84W SOUTH OF 21N TO
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ISOLATED WEAK
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A
RATHER WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FLOW PATTERN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W, AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N23W AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TO 10N35W AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 08N35W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 08N51W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N
BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 32W-35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK TROUGH WITH A WEAKENING LOW ALONG IT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 26N90W TO 24N91W TO 22N90W. IT IS DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE WEST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 23N ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. THE PRESENT GRADIENT IN PLACE IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN.
FRESH N WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS TROPICAL
STORM IMELDA MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE,
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTH WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH WED. LATE THIS WEEK, STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NE WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE NE GULF THU AND FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA A IS NOTED OVER EASTERN CUBA, AND SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH FROM THERE TO NEAR 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. A RATHER
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REGION PROVIDING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE BASIN WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE GENERALLY EAST OF
ABOUT 71W. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE BASIN AND LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS N OF
JAMAICA, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH MON. NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE
PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS FRI AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NW BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 26.7N 66.6W AT 28/0600 UTC OR
350 NM SSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 77.1W AT 29/0600 UTC
OR 110 NM NW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST
OF 58W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINING WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS. SEAS OF 4
TO 8 FT IN SOUTHEAST SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THESE WATERS BEYOND
THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 14N48W TO 10.5N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N48W. TO THE NORTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
EXTEND FROM WESTERN AFRICA TO NEAR 42W AND SUPPORT SEAS OF 6 TO 9
FT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 45W AND 58W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS
NEAR 26.2N 66.2W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 27.5N
67.3W MON MORNING, 29.5N 68.5W MON EVENING, 31.9N 68.9W TUE
MORNING, AND WELL N OF THE OUR AREA AFTERWARDS. MEANWHILE,
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS NEAR 25.0N 77.1W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTH AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. IMELDA WILL
MOVE TO 26.3N 77.2W MON MORNING, 27.9N 77.3W MON EVENING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 28.8N 76.5W TUE MORNING, 29.4N
74.8W TUE EVENING, 30.2N 72.0W WED MORNING, AND 31.2N 68.3W WED
EVENING. IMELDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES N OF
OUR AREA THU AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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