189
AXNT20 KNHC 291051
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON SEP 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1050 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 27.2N 66.9W AT 29/0900 UTC
OR 330 NM SSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115
KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO
ARE NEAR 44 FT (14 M). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HUMBERTO HAS A
SMALL INNER CORE OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION. SIMILAR
CONVECTION, IN WIDE BANDING FORMATION, IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
S SEMICIRCLE. AN OUTER RAIN BAND CONSISTING OF NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE HURRICANE
IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN AND ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
HUMBERTO WILL PASS WELL WEST, AND THEN NORTH OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
HUMBERTO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT, BUT HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE INTO TUESDAY. SWELLS
GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND
BERMUDA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE U.S. EAST COAST BEGINNING TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 29/0900
UTC OR 50 NM S OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND, MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ARE
PEAKING NEAR 13 FT (4 M). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF ITS
CIRCULATION FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON TUESDAY, IMELDA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THEN TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND
IMELDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG 17W, SOUTH OF 18N BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 05N TO 12N AND EAST OF 25W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W, SOUTH OF 22N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W, AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N23W AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TO 09N35W AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 08N43W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N44W TO
08N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
19W-24W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS FEATURE AND HIGHER PRESSURES TO THE NORTH RESULT IN MODERATE
NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT FROM 24N TO 28N AND BETWEEN 88W AND
94W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE, MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER
NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH WED. LATE THIS
WEEK, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NE WINDS, WITH FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE NE GULF
THU AND FRI. FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE NW WINDS AND LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU THROUGH FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF TROPICAL
STORM IMELDA IS NOTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI AND
SOUTH TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA, MAINLY BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. DESPITE
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT PRESIDES ACROSS THE BASIN,
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE EASTERN AND PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF 72W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
FOUND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS N OF
JAMAICA, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH TODAY. NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE
PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS LATE FRI AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NW BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 27.2N 66.9W AT 29/0900 UTC
OR 330 NM SSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115
KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 29/0900
UTC OR 50 NM S OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND, MOVING N AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES DOMINATE THE SW N ATLANTIC WEST OF
58W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINING WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS. SEAS OF 4
TO 8 FT IN SOUTHEAST SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THESE WATERS BEYOND
THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
BROAD TROPICAL WAVE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 26N AND BETWEEN 38W AND 44W. OTHERWISE,
A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR EASTERN WATERS,
FROM 16N TO 22N AND EAST OF 24W, AND ALSO OFF MOROCCO. MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO 27W AND EAST OF 45W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 22N AND
BETWEEN 45W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR 27.2N
66.9W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 28.6N 68.0W THIS
AFTERNOON, 30.9N 68.9W TUE MORNING AND WELL N OF THE OUR AREA
AFTERWARDS. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS NEAR 25.5N 77.1W
AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 26.7N 77.1W THIS AFTERNOON, 28.1N
76.8W TUE MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 28.9N 75.1W TUE
AFTERNOON, 29.9N 72.3W WED MORNING, 31.1N 68.8W WED AFTERNOON AND
MOVES N OF OUR AREA THU MORNING. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DELGADO
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