219
AXNT20 KNHC 291755
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON SEP 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 67.6W AT 29/1500 UTC
OR 300 NM SSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125
KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO
ARE NEAR 37 FT (11 M). A SENTINEL 6-A ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED AT
LEAST 12 FT SEAS ALONG A LINE FROM 24N64W TO 31N67W WITH A PEAK OF
30 FT NEAR 28N66W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN AND ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THAT, BUT HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE INTO TUESDAY.
SWELLS GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
AND BERMUDA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL
ALSO AFFECT THE U.S. EAST COAST BEGINNING TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 26.9N 77.1W AT 29/1500
UTC OR 30 NM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND, MOVING N AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE
CENTER OF IMELDA ARE NEAR 15 FT (5 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 73W-79W.
A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON
TUESDAY, IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THEN
TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK, BUT APPROACHING THE ISLAND OF
BERMUDA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IMELDA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE
HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16W,
SOUTH OF 18N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N-13N AND EAST OF 21W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N-16N AND BETWEEN 39W-47W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W, AND CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 07N-13N AND EAST OF 21W, ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST AFRICAN COAST. THERE IS NO
COHERENT ITCZ THIS MORNING.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N93W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO 25N87W. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WITH SEAS 1-4 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH WED. LATE THIS WEEK, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING NE WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
POSSIBLE IN THE NE GULF THU AND FRI. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU
THROUGH FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAVE DISRUPTED THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT.
BECAUSE OF THAT, THE TRADES ARE ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EAST OF 72W AND GENTLE TO CALM WEST OF 72W. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT EAST
OF 72W AND 1-3 FT WEST OF 72W. NW TO N SWELL OF 3-5 FT ARE ALSO
OCCURRING THROUGH THE WINDWARD, MONA, AND ANEGADA PASSAGES DUE TO
HURRICANE HUMBERTO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OCCURRING SOUTH OF 12N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC'S MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS N OF
JAMAICA, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH TODAY. NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE
PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS LATE FRI AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
CURRENTLY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE DOMINATING THE WEATHER WEST OF
60W. EAST OF 60W, A 1026 MB AZORES HIGH IS CENTERED AT 32N31W IS
FORCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
SOUTH OF 25N WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 15N-22N EAST OF 27W ARE NE
STRONG WITH SEAS 7-10 FT. N SWELL OF 8-9 FT ARE ALSO OCCURRING
NORTH OF 29N EAST OF 15W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N47W IS FORCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 40W-48W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR 28.0N
67.6W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 29.6N 68.5W THIS
EVENING, 32.1N 69.0W TUE MORNING, 34.4N 67.9W TUE EVENING, 36.1N
64.5W WED MORNING, BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MOVE TO 37.4N 58.5W
WED EVENING, AND 40.6N 49.0W THU MORNING. HUMBERTO WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY FRI. TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS NEAR 26.9N 77.1W AT 11 AM EDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB.
IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 28.0N 77.0W THIS EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 29.0N 75.9W TUE MORNING, 29.7N 73.6W TUE EVENING,
30.8N 70.2W WED MORNING, 32.3N 65.4W WED EVENING, AND 33.7N 60.0W
THU MORNING. IMELDA WILL WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR
38.0N 53.0W BY EARLY FRI
LANDSEA/RIVERA-AZEVEDO
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