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AXNT20 KNHC 292306
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2240 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 29.1N 68.1W AT 29/2100
UTC OR 255 NM SW OF BERMUDA, MOVING N-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF
HUMBERTO ARE NEAR 42 FT (13 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 64W-69W. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
HURRICANE IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, BUT HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE INTO TUESDAY.
SWELLS GENERATED BY HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
HISPANIOLA, THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO AFFECT THE U.S. EAST
COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 77.3W AT 29/2100 UTC
OR 830 NM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND, MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS NE OF THE CENTER OF
IMELDA ARE NEAR 22 FT (6.5 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A
GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON
TUESDAY, IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TUE, MOVING AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK, BUT APPROACHING
THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND
IMELDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT.
SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO
ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH WED. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16W,
SOUTH OF 21N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N-14N AND EAST OF 21W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 09N-17N AND BETWEEN 39W-50W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16.5N16.5W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08.5N34W TO 09.5N43W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 09.5N48W TO 09.5N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N-13N AND EAST OF 30W, AND FROM
07.5N-17N BETWEEN 31W-55W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24.5N92W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 24.5N87W. SCATTERED PATCHES
OF RAINSHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE LOW TO NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE N HALF OF THE GULF,
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOW. SEAS THERE ARE 2 TO 5 FT,
HIGHEST JUST NW OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE NW WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO, AND NW WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ACROSS
THESE WATERS ARE 1 TO 3 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
ARE MOVING TO NEAR THE N COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, MODEST HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THU AND LEAD TO INCREASING
NE WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE IN
THE NE GULF THU AND FRI. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU THROUGH FRI AS
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAVE DISRUPTED THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT.
BECAUSE OF THAT, THE TRADES ARE SE AND ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EAST OF 72W AND GENTLE TO CALM WEST OF 72W. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT
EAST OF 72W AND 1-3 FT WEST OF 72W. NW TO N SWELL OF 3-5 FT FROM
HUMBERTO IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD, MONA, AND ANEGADA
PASSAGES, AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING SOUTH OF
11N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC'S
MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS N OF JAMAICA,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY SWELL
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE PASSAGES
OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
CURRENTLY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE DOMINATING THE WEATHER WEST OF
60W. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER COVER THE AREA FROM
23N-31N AND W OF 61W. EAST OF 61W, A 1025 MB AZORES HIGH IS
CENTERED AT 31N32W, AND FORMS AN E TO W RIDGE TO 63W, AND JUST NE
OF HUMBERTO. THIS PATTERN IS FORCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE SOUTH, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 22N AND SEAS
5-8 FT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN
COAST FROM 15N-22N EAST OF 27W ARE NE AND STRONG WITH SEAS 8-10
FT. N SWELL OF 8-9 FT IS ALSO OCCURRING NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 15W.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 27N47W IS FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 40W-49W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO
30.8N 68.8W TUE MORNING, 33.4N 68.6W TUE AFTERNOON, 35.4N 66.4W
WED MORNING, 36.8N 61.8W WED AFTERNOON, BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND
MOVE TO 38.4N 54.9W THU MORNING, AND WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR 41.5N 46.0W THU AFTERNOON. HUMBERTO WILL DISSIPATE
FRI AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 28.4N 76.8W TUE MORNING, MOVE TO 29.3N 75.0W TUE
AFTERNOON, 30.4N 72.2W WED MORNING, 31.7N 67.8W WED AFTERNOON,
33.3N 62.3W THU MORNING, AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MOVE TO
35.0N 56.8W THU AFTERNOON. IMELDA WILL WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR 39.0N 50.0W BY FRI AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO LARGE
SWELL FROM BOTH SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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