607
AXNT20 KNHC 300907
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 68.5W AT 30/0300
UTC OR 230 NM SW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF
HUMBERTO ARE NEAR 43 FT (13 M). HUMBERTO IS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AS ITS CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE TO BE DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHEAST ITS CENTER. THIS CONVECTION CONSISTS OF THE NUMEROUS
TO STRONG TYPE OF INTENSITY FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W,
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 30N
BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTH ON
TUE, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH FASTER NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION
ON WED AND THU. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO
WILL PASS WEST, AND THEN NORTH OF BERMUDA ON TUE AND WED. HUMBERTO
IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST, HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELL
FROM HUMBERTO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AFFECTING BEACHES OF THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N 77.2W AT 30/0600 UTC
OR 130 NM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND, MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT (6 M) JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IMELDA HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION TO ITS CLOUD PATTERN STRUCTURE, AND THERE
DOESN'T APPEAR ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER. THE OBSERVED
CONVECTION CONSISTS OF THE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TYPE
INTENSITY FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W AND FROM 29N TO 30N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. IMELDA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED ON TUE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER
SHOULD APPROACH BERMUDA ON WED. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND IMELDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TUE OR TUE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE
HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING TO
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE SWELL IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 17W FROM 08N TO 20N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A 1012
MB LOW IS ON THE COAST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND
AFRICA FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 49W FROM 03N TO
19N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS IS INDICATED IN A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF WAVE ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 36W AND THE WAVE, AND WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 12N
TO 16N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N27W AND WESTWARD TO 09N38W AND TO
09N47W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N50W TO 09.5N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
40W-42W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 39W-42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SMALL AND WEAK 1010 MB LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
25N92W, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO 25N89W AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 23.5N95W. SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAINSHOWERS
ARE WEST OF THE LOW TO NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. A FAIRLY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS TO BE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF.
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW FROM
22N TO 26N WEST OF 93W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. SEAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOW ARE 3 TO 5 FT, HIGHEST SEAS ARE JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SEAS ACROSS THESE WATERS ARE 1 TO 3 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS, RESIDUAL FROM EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR
LIGHTER NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NE WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE NE GULF THU THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE,
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE OFF
VERACRUZ LATE THU AND FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAVE DISRUPTED THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE CONFINED TO EAST OF
ABOUT 73W, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE WEST OF 73W. SEAS ARE
3 TO 5 FT EAST OF 73W AND 1 TO 3 FT WEST OF 73W. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH LONG-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY HUMBERTO ARE IN
THE WINDWARD, MONA, AND ANEGADA PASSAGES, AND SPREADING SOME INTO
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN OVER THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTION OF THE SEA OFF COLOMBIA FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
WEST OF 75W, AND ALSO SOUTH OF ABOUT 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN LEADING TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST LONG-PERIOD
SWELL PRODUCED FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL
REACH THE PASSAGES OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR
ROUGH SEAS LATE ON THU AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ON TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC WATERS ABOUT 180 NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL,
FLORIDA.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE DOMINATING THE WEATHER WEST OF
60W. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER COVER THE AREA FROM
23N TO 31N AND ROUGHLY WEST OF 61W. EAST OF 61W, A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N35W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N61W AND TO EASTERN CUBA. THE RELATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH
OF ABOUT 23N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. NORTHEAST MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA
AND 27W AND FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 27W AND 59W. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10
FT WITH THESE WINDS, WITH THE 10 FT SEAS CONCENTRATED NEAR
17W21W. NORTH SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IS ALSO OCCURRING
NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 16W. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N48W IS MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR
30N46W TO 24N48.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS NEAR 28.4N
77.2W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 29.2N 76.3W TUE MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 30.1N 74.1W TUE EVENING, 31.1N 70.7W
WED MORNING AND NORTH OF OUR WATERS WED EVENING. STRONG TO GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF
73W SHIFTING EASTWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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