281
AXNT20 KNHC 301034
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 31.6N 69.4W AT 30/0900 UTC
OR 240 NM W OF BERMUDA, MOVING NNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85
KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO
ARE NEAR 39 FT (12 M). HUMBERTO IS A SHEARED HURRICANE WITH MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH FASTER NORTHEAST OR EAST-
NORTHEAST MOTION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL PASS WEST OF, AND THEN NORTH OF
BERMUDA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, WITH
HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY. SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AFFECTING BEACHES OF THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 28.8N 76.8W AT 30/0900
UTC OR 140 NM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND, MOVING NE AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 23 FT
(7 M) JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OBSERVED CONVECTION CONSISTS
OF THE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 76W AND
80W. IMELDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS
TODAY AND QUICKLY BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
IMELDA SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, WITH FURTHER
STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING TO MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W, SOUTH OF 21N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 16N AND EAST OF 22W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 20N AND BETWEEN 35W AND 55W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N16W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N30W AND WESTWARD TO 09N48W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N51W TO 09N59W. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SMALL AND WEAK 1010 MB LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
24N93W, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO 25N91W AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 22N94W. SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAINSHOWERS
ARE WEST OF THE LOW TO NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC
WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 2-4 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
AND SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. LOCALLY FRESH
N-NE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND SW GULF THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. OTHERWISE, MODEST HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING NE WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE NE GULF THU THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE, FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU AND FRI..
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO POSITIONED WELL NORTH
OF THE CARIBBEAN HAVE DISRUPTED THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS A RESULT, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE CONFINED TO
EAST OF ABOUT 75W, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE WEST OF 75W.
SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT EAST OF 75W AND 1 TO 3 FT WEST OF 73W. SEAS OF
3 TO 5 FT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH LONG-PERIOD GENERATED BY HUMBERTO
ARE IN THE WINDWARD, MONA, AND ANEGADA PASSAGES, AND SPREADING
SOME INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN LEADING TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE SAT. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY SWELL FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE PASSAGES OF
THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS LATE FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA AND ON TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
LOCATED N OF THE NW BAHAMAS.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE DOMINATING THE WEATHER WEST OF
60W. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER COVER THE AREA NORTH OF
23N AND ROUGHLY WEST OF 61W. EAST OF 61W, A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER
IS ANAYLZED NEAR 31N35W. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 30N45W TO 23N50W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 31N25W TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 25W.
MEANWHILE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
NOTED OFF MOROCCO AND NW MAURITANIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR 31.6N
69.4W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. HUMBERTO IS CURRENTLY JUST
NORTH OF OUR WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS NEAR 28.8N
76.8W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. IMELDA WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 29.3N 75.7W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 30.3N 72.7W WED MORNING
AND NORTH OF OUR WATERS WED EVENING. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 73W
SHIFTING EASTWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .
DELGADO
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