666
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 33.0N 69.9W AT 30/1500 UTC
OR 260 NM W OF BERMUDA, MOVING NNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70
KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO ARE
NEAR 36 FT (11 M). HUMBERTO IS A SHEARED HURRICANE WITH MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A TURN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH- NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
MUCH FASTER EAST- NORTHEAST MOTION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL PASS WEST OF, AND
THEN NORTH OF BERMUDA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS,
AFFECTING BEACHES OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.2N 75.9W AT 30/1800 UTC OR
600 NM WSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING ENE AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 23 FT (7 M) JUST NORTH
OF THE CENTER. THE OBSERVED CONVECTION CONSISTS OF THE NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY
AND BE APPROACHING BERMUDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SWELLS
GENERATED BY HURRICANE IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING
THE BAHAMAS AND ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING TO MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 13N AND EAST OF 23W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO HAVE ITS
AXIS ALONG 47W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N
TO 21N AND BETWEEN 38W AND 56W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N27W AND WESTWARD TO 10N49W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 12N60W. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN GENERALLY S OF 13N AND W OF 76W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SMALL AND WEAK 1012 MB LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
23N94W, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO 25N91W AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 21N95W. MODERATE NE WINDS FLOWING AROUND
HURRICANE IMELDA ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF N OF 25N AND E OF 90W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
BASIN. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
SW GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN AND SW GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
CYCLONIC WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
STRAITS TODAY. OTHERWISE, MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NE
WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE NE GULF
THU THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PULSE OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU AND FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO POSITIONED WELL NORTH
OF THE CARIBBEAN HAVE DISRUPTED THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS A RESULT, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE CONFINED TO
EAST OF ABOUT 75W, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE WEST OF 75W.
SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT EAST OF 75W AND 1 TO 3 FT WEST OF 75W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN LEADING TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE SAT. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY SWELL FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE PASSAGES OF
THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS LATE FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA AND ON TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
LOCATED N OF THE NW BAHAMAS.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE DOMINATING THE WEATHER WEST OF
60W. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER COVER THE AREA NORTH OF
24N AND WEST OF 61W. EAST OF 61W, A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS
ANALYZED NEAR 30N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N44W TO
24N51W, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 23N TO
28N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5-8 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 31N25W TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MEANWHILE, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED OFF
MOROCCO AND NW MAURITANIA. ANOTHER AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT IS OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN
38W AND 48W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NEAR 33.0N
69.9W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 34.8N
69.1W THIS EVENING, BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MOVE TO 36.2N 66.4W
WED MORNING, WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 37.0N 61.5W
WED EVENING, AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. HURRICANE IMELDA IS NEAR
29.1N 76.6W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 29.8N 74.6W THIS
EVENING, 31.0N 71.0W WED MORNING, 32.6N 65.2W WED EVENING, 34.3N
60.0W THU MORNING, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 36.7N 53.9W
THU EVENING, AND WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 39.3N
50.4W FRI MORNING. IMELDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO 43.6N 46.4W BY EARLY SAT. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 73W SHIFTING
EASTWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page