542
AXNT20 KNHC 302137
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED OCT 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA 34.0N 69.5W AT
30/2100 UTC OR 260 NM WNW OF BERMUDA, MOVING N AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS, SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER COVER THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W, WITH SEAS
PEAKING NEAR 16 FT. WINDS 20 KT OR GREATER COVER THE FORECAST
WATERS N OF 23N AND W OF 63W. SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS,
AFFECTING BEACHES OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, BAHAMAS, BERMUDA,
AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HUMBERTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 75.5W AT 30/2100 UTC OR
580 NM WSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING ENE AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
28N TO 31N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.
IMELDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AND
PEAK IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. IMELDA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES IN BERMUDA. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
BERMUDA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SWELLS AND HIGH SURF FROM BOTH
HUMBERTO AND IMELDA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 19W, SOUTH
OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 48W, SOUTH
OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 22N AND BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W, AND CONTINUES
TO 09N27W TO 10N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N51W TO 11N60W.
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N92W TO 21N95W. A 1012 MB LOW IS
CENTERED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 23N94W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS,
AND SLIGHT SEAS, PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN AND SW GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NE
WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE NE GULF
THU THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL PULSE OFF VERACRUZ
LATE THU AND FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IMELDA AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE
WATERS E OF 75W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND W OF 75W. SEAS
ARE IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE E OF 75W, AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN LEADING TO MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE SAT. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY SWELL
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE PASSAGES
OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS LATE FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO AND HURRICANE IMELDA.
THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE DOMINATING THE MARINE CONDITIONS N
OF 23N AND WEST OF 60W. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER COVER
THE AREA NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 61W. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 30N35W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, ARE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS N OF THE AREA
NEAR 34.0N 69.5W AT 5 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 15 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE TO 35.3N
68.3W WED MORNING, WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 36.1N
65.0W WED AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. HURRICANE IMELDA
IS NEAR 29.4N 75.5W AT 5 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT, AND
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 30.0N
73.1W WED MORNING, 31.2N 68.7W WED AFTERNOON, 32.8N 63.4W THU
MORNING, 34.9N 56.7W THU AFTERNOON, BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MOVE
TO 38.0N 51.5W FRI MORNING, AND WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
NEAR 40.4N 49.1W FRI AFTERNOON. IMELDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 45.5N 43.0W BY SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG TO
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 26N AND
EAST OF 73W SHIFTING EASTWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. ROUGH
SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AL
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